New Delhi , Dec 31: A US think tank has warned of a potential armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026, citing “heightened terrorist activity” as a major risk factor. The report surveyed American foreign policy experts and noted that efforts by the Trump administration had aimed to resolve ongoing tensions between the two countries.
The analysis referenced a brief military confrontation in May 2025, which followed a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, that killed 26 civilians. India responded with Operation Sindoor, targeting terrorist camps across the border, reportedly neutralizing over 100 militants and nine camps. Subsequent drone incursions by Pakistan between May 7 and 10 were intercepted without casualties or damage.
The escalation ended after military talks, leading to a ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control.
The report also pointed to tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, noting a border conflict in October 2025 after a Pakistani strike in Kabul targeting Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan leader Noor Wali Mehsud. Afghan forces strongly retaliated, heightening cross-border risks.
The think tank concluded that there is a moderate likelihood of renewed armed conflict in South Asia in 2026, driven by cross-border militant activity and unresolved regional tensions.
